2022 United States Senate elections in California

2022 United States Senate elections in California

November 8, 2022

Candidate Alex Padilla Mark Meuser Party Democratic Republican Regular election 6,621,616 61.06% 4,222,025 38.94% Special election 6,559,303 60.89% 4,212,446 39.11%

Padilla:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Meuser:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

U.S. senator before election Alex Padilla Democratic Elected U.S. senator Alex Padilla Democratic

Two 2022 United States Senate elections in California were held concurrently on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of California. There were two ballot items for the same Class 3 seat: a special election to fill the seat for the final weeks of the 117th United States Congress (ending on January 3, 2023), and a general election for a full term (beginning on the same day), starting in the 118th United States Congress.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Alex Padilla was appointed in 2021 by Governor Gavin Newsom to fill the vacancy created by Kamala Harris's election to the vice presidency in 2020, and he sought a full term. A jungle primary for each of the terms took place on June 7. The top two candidates in each primary, regardless of party, advanced to the special and regular general elections in November. With his advancement out of the primary, Mark P. Meuser ( MOY-zhər) became the first Republican since 2012 to advance to the general election, as both the 2016 and 2018 Senate elections solely featured Democrats as the top two candidates. This race was a rematch between the two, as both had previously run for the secretary of state in 2018. Padilla easily won both elections. Padilla became the first Latino elected to the U.S. Senate from California, and the first male elected to the Senate from California since Pete Wilson was re-elected in 1988 and the first male elected to the Class 3 Senate seat from California since Alan Cranston was re-elected in 1986. This was the first time since 1988 where both major party nominees for a Senate seat in California were men and was also the first time where both major party nominees for the Class 3 Senate seat in California were men since 1986.

This was the best performance for a Republican candidate in a California Senate election since 2010.

Candidates

Democratic Party

Advanced to general

• Alex Padilla, incumbent U.S. Senator (2021–present) and former secretary of state of California (2015–2021)

Eliminated in primary

• Akinyemi Agbede, mathematician
• Dan O'Dowd, founder and president of Green Hills Software and candidate for U.S. Senate in 1994
• Douglas Howard Pierce, businessman and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018
• Obaidul Huq Pirjada, attorney
• Timothy J. Ursich, doctor

Declined

• Ro Khanna, U.S. Representative for California's 17th congressional district (2017–present) (endorsed Padilla)

Republican Party

Advanced to general

• Mark P. Meuser, attorney and candidate for California Secretary of State in 2018

Eliminated in primary

• James P. Bradley, businessman, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018, and candidate for California's 33rd congressional district in 2020
• Jon Elist, small business owner
• Myron L. Hall, physician
• Sarah Sun Liew, entrepreneur
• Robert George Lucero Jr., consultant
• Enrique Petris, businessman
• Chuck Smith, retired law enforcement officer
• Carlos Guillermo Tapia, businessman
• Cordie Williams, marine veteran and doctor
• Lijun Zhou, businesswoman (write-in, general election only)

Withdrawn

• Elizabeth Heng, candidate for California's 16th congressional district in 2018 and former U.S. House staffer (ran in the CA-22 special election)
• Yvonne R. Girard, retired government employee (died)

Green Party

Eliminated in primary

• James "Henk" Conn, educator and candidate for mayor of Long Beach in 2018
• Pamela Elizondo, entrepreneur

Peace and Freedom Party

Eliminated in primary

• John Parker, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018 and Workers World nominee for President of the United States in 2004 (running as write-in for special election)

No party preference

Eliminated in primary

• Daphne Bradford, entrepreneur and candidate for president in 2020
• Eleanor Garcia, industrial worker (Socialist Workers Party)
• Don J. Grundmann, chiropractor (Constitution Party)
• Deon D. Jenkins
• Irene Ratliff (write-in, both general and special elections)
• Marc Alexander Roth (write-in, general election only)
• Mark A. Ruzon (write-in, general election only), software engineer (American Solidarity Party)

Endorsements

Primary elections

Campaign

Incumbent senator Alex Padilla was appointed to the job in January 2021 following Kamala Harris's election to the office of Vice President of the United States. Following his appointment, Padilla quickly began to focus on his 2022 election campaign, as the fact that he has not been elected to the position means that he has a relatively low profile. Padilla's election strategy focused on advocating for progressive policies and building ties with left-wing organizations that had a poor relationship with California's other Senator, Dianne Feinstein. The potential Democratic opponent to Padilla considered most likely to join the race was U.S. Representative Ro Khanna, a staunchly left-wing Democrat who rose to prominence as the co-chair of the Bernie Sanders 2020 presidential campaign, and who had a loyal base of support from California's Asian-American and Pacific Islander communities. On August 9, 2021, Khanna announced that he would be endorsing Padilla for election, which was viewed as likely ending any possibility that Padilla would face a serious Democratic opponent. It was noted by the San Francisco Chronicle that it was considered unlikely that Padilla would face any serious Republican opponent, as California's heavily Democratic lean caused potentially strong candidates, such as U.S. Representatives Mike Garcia and Young Kim, to prefer to remain in their positions rather than launch a long-shot Senate run.

In April 2022, billionaire businessman Dan O'Dowd entered the race, launching a $650,000 ad campaign. O'Dowd's goal with this ad buy, and with entering the race in the first place, was to "make computers safe for humanity" and draw the attention of the public and politicians to the dangers of Tesla's unfinished Full Self-Driving software being rolled out to 100,000 cars on public roads.

Special election blanket primary

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Daphne Bradford (NPP)	James Bradley (R)	Jon Elist (R)	Myron Hall (R)	Mark Meuser (R)	Dan O'Dowd (D)	Alex Padilla (D)	Timothy Ursich Jr. (D)	Undecided
Berkeley IGS	May 24–31, 2022	3,438 (LV)	± 2.2%	1%	7%	5%	2%	14%	3%	44%	2%	21%
SurveyUSA	May 13–15, 2022	709 (LV)	± 4.5%	1%	8%	7%	3%	11%	6%	40%	2%	22%

Results

Special election blanket primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Alex Padilla (incumbent)	3,740,582	55.0
	Republican	Mark P. Meuser	1,503,480	22.1
	Republican	James P. Bradley	472,052	6.9
	Republican	Jon Elist	403,722	5.9
	Democratic	Timothy J. Ursich	226,447	3.3
	Democratic	Dan O'Dowd	191,531	2.8
	Republican	Myron L. Hall	143,038	2.1
	No party preference	Daphne Bradford	112,191	1.6
	Peace and Freedom	John Parker (write-in)	9,951	0.1
	No party preference	Irene Ratliff (write-in)	12	0.0
Total votes			6,803,006	100.0

Regular election blanket primary

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	(D) Akinyemi Agbede	(I) Daphne Bradford	(R) James Bradley	(G) James Conn	(R) Jon Elist	(G) Pamela Elizondo	(I) Eleanor Garcia	(I) Don Grundmann	(R) Myron Hall	(I) Deon Jenkins	(R) Sarah Sun Liew	(R) Robert Lucero Jr.	(R) Mark Meuser	(D) Dan O'Dowd	(D) Alex Padilla	(PF) John Parker	(R) Enrique Petris	(D) Douglas Pierce	(D) Obaidul Huq Pirjada	(R) Chuck Smith	(R) Carlos Tapia	(D) Timothy Ursich Jr.	(R) Cordie Williams	Undecided
Berkeley IGS	May 24–31, 2022	3,438 (LV)	± 2.2%	1%	0%	3%	0%	2%	1%	0%	0%	1%	0%	1%	0%	11%	1%	42%	1%	0%	1%	1%	6%	1%	1%	2%	22%
SurveyUSA	May 13–15, 2022	709 (LV)	± 4.5%	2%	0%	9%	1%	4%	0%	0%	0%	3%	0%	3%	2%	4%	1%	36%	0%	1%	2%	2%	2%	1%	1%	1%	24%

Results

Regular election blanket primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Alex Padilla (incumbent)	3,725,544	54.1
	Republican	Mark P. Meuser	1,028,374	14.9
	Republican	Cordie Williams	474,321	6.9
	Republican	Jon Elist	289,716	4.2
	Republican	Chuck Smith	266,766	3.9
	Republican	James P. Bradley	235,788	3.4
	Democratic	Douglas Howard Pierce	116,771	1.7
	Peace and Freedom	John Parker	105,477	1.5
	Republican	Sarah Sun Liew	76,994	1.1
	Democratic	Dan O'Dowd	74,916	1.1
	Democratic	Akinyemi Agbede	70,971	1.0
	Republican	Myron L. Hall	66,161	1.0
	Democratic	Timothy J. Ursich	58,348	0.8
	Republican	Robert George Lucero Jr.	53,398	0.8
	Green	James "Henk" Conn	35,983	0.5
	No party preference	Eleanor Garcia	34,625	0.5
	Republican	Carlos Guillermo Tapia	33,870	0.5
	Green	Pamela Elizondo	31,981	0.5
	Republican	Enrique Petris	31,883	0.5
	Democratic	Obaidul Huq Pirjada	27,889	0.4
	No party preference	Daphne Bradford	26,900	0.4
	No party preference	Don J. Grundmann	10,181	0.1
	No party preference	Deon D. Jenkins	6,936	0.1
	No party preference	Mark A. Ruzon (write-in)	206	0.0
	Republican	Lijun Zhou (write-in)	58	0.0
	No party preference	Irene Ratliff (write-in)	7	0.0
	No party preference	Marc Alexander Roth (write-in)	1	0.0
Total votes			6,884,065	100.0

General elections

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Solid D	March 4, 2022
Inside Elections	Solid D	April 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe D	March 1, 2022
Politico	Solid D	April 1, 2022
RCP	Safe D	February 24, 2022
Fox News	Solid D	May 12, 2022
DDHQ	Solid D	July 20, 2022
538	Solid D	June 30, 2022
The Economist	Safe D	September 7, 2022

Polling

Special election

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Alex Padilla (D)	Mark Meuser (R)	Undecided
Research Co.	November 4–6, 2022	450 (LV)	± 4.6%	59%	35%	6%
SurveyUSA	October 7–10, 2022	1,013 (LV)	± 4.4%	56%	34%	10%

Regular election

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Alex Padilla (D)	Mark Meuser (R)	Undecided
Research Co.	November 4–6, 2022	450 (LV)	± 4.6%	60%	35%	5%
USC	October 30 – November 2, 2022	802 (RV)	± 3.5%	63%	37%	–
ActiVote	July 22 – October 20, 2022	208 (LV)	± 7.0%	65%	35%	–
SurveyUSA	October 7–10, 2022	1,013 (LV)	± 4.4%	56%	34%	11%

Results

2022 United States Senate special election in California

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Alex Padilla (incumbent)	6,559,303	60.89%	N/A
	Republican	Mark Meuser	4,212,446	39.11%	N/A
Total votes			10,771,749	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic hold

2022 United States Senate election in California

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Alex Padilla (incumbent)	6,621,616	61.06%	N/A
	Republican	Mark Meuser	4,222,025	38.94%	N/A
Total votes			10,843,641	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic hold

By county

By congressional district

Padilla won 42 of 52 congressional districts in the regular election, including two that elected Republicans.

District	Padilla	Meuser	Representative
1st	36%	64%	Doug LaMalfa
2nd	73%	27%	Jared Huffman
3rd	46%	54%	Kevin Kiley
4th	66%	34%	Mike Thompson
5th	40%	60%	Tom McClintock
6th	57%	43%	Ami Bera
7th	66%	34%	Doris Matsui
8th	75%	25%	John Garamendi
9th	51%	49%	Josh Harder
10th	66%	34%	Mark DeSaulnier
11th	86%	14%	Nancy Pelosi
12th	91%	9%	Barbara Lee
13th	49%	51%	John Duarte
14th	70%	30%	Eric Swalwell
15th	77%	23%	Jackie Speier (117th Congress)
			Kevin Mullin (118th Congress)
16th	74%	26%	Anna Eshoo
17th	71%	29%	Ro Khanna
18th	68%	32%	Zoe Lofgren
19th	67%	33%	Jimmy Panetta
20th	32%	68%	Kevin McCarthy
21st	53%	47%	Jim Costa
22nd	51%	49%	David Valadao
23rd	41%	59%	Jay Obernolte
24th	61%	39%	Salud Carbajal
25th	55%	45%	Raul Ruiz
26th	55%	45%	Julia Brownley
27th	51%	49%	Mike Garcia
28th	65%	35%	Judy Chu
29th	76%	24%	Tony Cárdenas
30th	77%	23%	Adam Schiff
31st	61%	39%	Grace Napolitano
32nd	69%	31%	Brad Sherman
33rd	57%	43%	Pete Aguilar
34th	83%	17%	Jimmy Gomez
35th	57%	43%	Norma Torres
36th	69%	31%	Ted Lieu
37th	86%	14%	Karen Bass (117th Congress)
			Sydney Kamlager-Dove (118th Congress)
38th	60%	40%	Linda Sánchez
39th	56%	44%	Mark Takano
40th	46%	54%	Young Kim
41st	47%	53%	Ken Calvert
42nd	69%	31%	Lucille Roybal-Allard (117th Congress)
			Robert Garcia (118th Congress)
43rd	80%	20%	Maxine Waters
44th	72%	28%	Nanette Barragán
45th	49%	51%	Michelle Steel
46th	61%	39%	Lou Correa
47th	51%	49%	Katie Porter
48th	40%	60%	Darrell Issa
49th	52%	48%	Mike Levin
50th	63%	37%	Scott Peters
51st	61%	39%	Sara Jacobs
52nd	65%	35%	Juan Vargas

See also

• 2022 United States Senate elections
• 2022 California elections
• 117th United States Congress
• List of special elections to the United States Senate