2018 United States Senate election in West Virginia

2018 United States Senate election in West Virginia
November 6, 2018
Turnout 47.04% Increase
 
Nominee Joe Manchin Patrick Morrisey
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 290,510 271,113
Percentage 49.57% 46.26%
Manchin:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%     70–80%
Morrisey:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Joe Manchin
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Joe Manchin
Democratic

The 2018 United States Senate election in West Virginia took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of West Virginia, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Senator Joe Manchin was considered to be among the most vulnerable Democratic senators facing re-election in 2018 due to the state's partisan lean and his declining popularity. Manchin defeated Republican State Attorney General Patrick Morrisey to win a second full term, marking what is as of 2024 the last time Democrats won a federal and/or statewide election in West Virginia.

Background

West Virginia was once a Democratic stronghold at the state and federal level, but has been rapidly shifting towards the Republican Party since 2000. In 2008, John McCain defeated Barack Obama by a margin of 55–42%. From 1959 to 2015, Democrats held both of West Virginia’s U.S. Senate seats.

In the 2012 presidential election, Mitt Romney defeated Obama 62–35% and swept every single county in the state. Despite this, Manchin was reelected in his own landslide over perennial candidate John Raese, receiving more than 60% of the vote and carrying all but three counties.

In 2016, Donald Trump won the state by a greater than 40-point margin over Hillary Clinton (68–26%), with Clinton's performance being the worst for either party in the state's history. Trump also won every county in the state.

Concurrent with Trump's landslide victory in West Virginia, Democratic businessman Jim Justice won the gubernatorial election with 49% of the vote but changed his party affiliation back to Republican within a year (Justice had previously been a Republican prior to running as a Democrat for governor). Democrats lost almost every statewide office in the state in 2016, with State Treasurer John Perdue being the only statewide Democrat re-elected.

Because of the heavy Republican lean of his state, Manchin was ranked by many outlets as one of the most vulnerable incumbents up for reelection. President Trump headlined three rallies in the state on behalf of Manchin's opponent Patrick Morrisey. Manchin's vote to confirm Judge Brett Kavanaugh in his highly contentious confirmation hearing, making him the only Democrat to do so, garnered national attention and backlash from members of his own party just weeks before the midterm elections. Despite the challenges to his re-election, Manchin leaned into his close personal ties to the state and emphasized his moderate views.

Although Manchin was seen as vulnerable during the lead-up to the election, polling considered him to be a slight favorite for most of the general election cycle. Manchin ultimately won re-election, though by a much narrower margin of victory than his 2012 landslide.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

Paula Jean Swearengin
State legislators
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Joe
Manchin 		Paula Jean
Swearengin 		Undecided
SurveyMonkey (D-Swearengin) September 2017 46% 8% 38%

Results

Results by county:
Manchin
  •   70–80%
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Joe Manchin (incumbent) 112,658 69.86%
Democratic Paula Jean Swearengin 48,594 30.14%
Total votes 161,252 100%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in the primary

Declined

Endorsements

Evan Jenkins
State officials
Organizations

Debates

Host
network 		Date Link(s) Participants
Evan
Jenkins 		Patrick
Morrisey 		Don
Blankenship 		Bo
Copley 		Jack
Newbrough 		Tom
Willis
Fox News May 1, 2018 Invited Invited Invited – – –
WVPB April 23, 2018 Invited Invited Invited Invited Invited Invited

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Don
Blankenship 		Evan
Jenkins 		Patrick
Morrisey 		Other Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Morrisey) April 22–23, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 15% 26% 28% – 18%
Fox News April 18–22, 2018 985 ± 3.0% 16% 25% 21% 8% 24%
National Research Inc. (R-GOPAC) Archived April 24, 2018, at the Wayback Machine April 17–19, 2018 411 ± 4.9% 12% 20% 24% 5% 39%
Osage Research (R-Morrisey) March 13, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 23% 17% 24% 4% –
Harper Polling (R-Jenkins) March 5–6, 2018 400 – 27% 29% 19% 10% 15%
Harper Polling (R-Jenkins) February 5–6, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 18% 33% 25% 12% 12%
– 42% 36% – 22%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R-35th PAC) October 19–22, 2017 400 ± 4.9% – 34% 40% – 26%

Results

Results by county:
Morrisey
  •   Morrisey—70–80%
  •   Morrisey—60–70%
  •   Morrisey—50–60%
  •   Morrisey—40–50%
  •   Morrisey—30–40%
  •   Morrisey—<30%
Jenkins
  •   Jenkins—30–40%
  •   Jenkins—40–50%
  •   Jenkins—50–60%
  •   Jenkins—60–70%
Blankenship
  •   Blankenship—<30%
  •   Blankenship—30–40%
  •   Blankenship—40–50%
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Patrick Morrisey 48,007 34.90%
Republican Evan Jenkins 40,185 29.21%
Republican Don Blankenship 27,478 19.97%
Republican Tom Willis 13,540 9.84%
Republican Bo Copley 4,248 3.09%
Republican Jack Newbrough 4,115 2.99%
Total votes 137,573 100%

Libertarian Party

Candidates

Nominated

  • Rusty Hollen

Constitution Party

Candidates

Denied ballot access

  • Don Blankenship, former chairman and CEO of Massey Energy. Observers noted that he would be ineligible to run due to West Virginia's sore-loser law which states that the loser of a partisan primary election cannot appear on the ballot as an independent or with another political party in the general election. Blankenship was eligible to run as a write-in candidate. Secretary of State Mac Warner denied ballot access to Blankenship's campaign on July 26, citing West Virginia's "sore loser" law. After a lawsuit, the Supreme Court of Appeals of West Virginia ordered Warner to deny Blankenship ballot access on August 29, 2018.

Endorsements

Don Blankenship
Organizations

General election

Candidates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report Lean D October 26, 2018
Inside Elections Tilt D November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean D November 5, 2018
CNN Lean D November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics Tossup November 5, 2018
Daily Kos Lean D November 5, 2018
Fox News Lean D November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight Likely D November 6, 2018

Endorsements

Joe Manchin (D)
U.S. Senators
Labor unions
Organizations
Other Individuals
Newspapers
  • The Sunday News-Register
Patrick Morrisey (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
U.S. Governors
State Senators
State Delegates
Organizations
Other individuals
Newspapers

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Joe Manchin (D) $8,872,162 $6,459,930 $4,200,530
Patrick Morrisey (R) $4,943,056 $3,315,300 $1,627,756
Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Manchin (D) 		Patrick
Morrisey (R) 		Rusty
Hollen (L) 		Other Undecided
Emerson College October 28–31, 2018 1,013 ± 3.2% 47% 42% 3% – 8%
Research America Inc. October 19–30, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 45% 40% 11% – 5%
Strategic Research Associates Archived November 4, 2018, at the Wayback Machine October 12–19, 2018 650 ± 3.8% 52% 36% 4% – 8%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R-NRSC) Archived October 24, 2018, at the Wayback Machine October 16–18, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 42% 44% 3% – 12%
45% 47% – – 8%
Vox Populi Polling October 13–15, 2018 789 ± 3.5% 53% 47% – – –
The Polling Company (R-Citizens United) October 11–13, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 49% 45% – 2% 3%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-NRSC) October 7–9, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 41% 40% 8% – –
Strategic Research Associates September 17–26, 2018 650 ± 3.8% 46% 38% 3% – 13%
1892 Polling (R-Morrisey) September 24–25, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 45% 45% – – 10%
The Tarrance Group (R-SLF) September 23–25, 2018 612 ± 4.1% 47% 43% 5% – 5%
Global Strategy Group (D-Manchin) September 19–23, 2018 601 ± 4.0% 48% 36% 4% – –
Emerson College September 13–15, 2018 825 ± 3.5% 45% 33% – 6% 16%
Harper Polling (R-35th PAC) August 23–26, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 47% 41% – – 12%
Research America Inc. August 16–26, 2018 404 ± 4.9% 46% 38% – – 16%
Trafalgar Group (R) July 13–16, 2018 1,158 ± 2.9% 50% 40% 2% – 8%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 892 ± 5.5% 53% 40% – – 6%
Monmouth University June 14–19, 2018 653 ± 3.8% 49% 42% – 3% 6%
Public Policy Polling June 12–13, 2018 633 – 49% 42% – – 9%
Hart Research Associates (D-DSCC) May 15–16, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 52% 40% – – –
Global Strategy Group (D-Manchin) May 13–16, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 50% 42% – – –
47% 40% 4% – –
WPA Intelligence (R) May 10, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 44% 46% – – 11%
Zogby Analytics September 27–30, 2017 320 ± 5.5% 45% 38% – – 17%
Research America Inc. August 11–20, 2017 400 ± 4.9% 51% 37% – – 12%
Harper Polling Archived November 30, 2016, at the Wayback Machine November 16–17, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 57% 35% – – 8%
Hypothetical polling
with Don Blankenship
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Manchin (D) 		Patrick
Morrisey (R) 		Don
Blankenship (C) 		Other Undecided
Research America Inc. August 16–26, 2018 404 ± 4.9% 45% 34% 8% – 13%
Monmouth University June 14–19, 2018 653 ± 3.8% 48% 39% 4% 2% 6%
Public Policy Polling June 12–13, 2018 633 – 46% 35% 11% – 7%
Gravis Marketing May 22, 2018 543 ± 4.2% 51% 39% 5% – –
with generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Manchin (D) 		Generic
Republican 		Undecided
National Research Inc. (R-GOPAC) Archived April 24, 2018, at the Wayback Machine April 17–19, 2018 – – 37% 41% 20%
SurveyMonkey/Axios February 12 – March 5, 2018 1,591 ± 3.5% 43% 52% 5%
with Evan Jenkins
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Manchin (D) 		Evan
Jenkins (R) 		Undecided
Zogby Analytics September 27–30, 2017 320 ± 5.5% 49% 36% 15%
Research America Inc. August 11–20, 2017 400 ± 4.9% 50% 40% 10%
Harper Polling Archived November 30, 2016, at the Wayback Machine November 16–17, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 51% 39% 10%
with Alex Mooney
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Manchin (D) 		Alex
Mooney (R) 		Undecided
Zogby Analytics September 27–30, 2017 320 ± 5.5% 49% 35% 17%
Harper Polling Archived November 30, 2016, at the Wayback Machine November 16–17, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 58% 28% 14%
with David McKinley
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Manchin (D) 		David
McKinley (R) 		Undecided
Harper Polling Archived November 30, 2016, at the Wayback Machine November 16–17, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 54% 34% 12%
Public Policy Polling April 29 – May 1, 2016 1,201 ± 2.8% 46% 36% 18%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Carte
Goodwin (D) 		David
McKinley (R) 		Undecided
Harper Polling Archived November 30, 2016, at the Wayback Machine November 16–17, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 36% 42% 22%
with generic Democratic and Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Democrat 		Generic
Republican 		Other Undecided
National Research Inc. (R-GOPAC) Archived April 24, 2018, at the Wayback Machine April 17–19, 2018 – – 37% 49% 4% 11%
Zogby Analytics September 27–30, 2017 320 ± 5.5% 35% 40% 6% 19%
with Carte Goodwin
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Carte
Goodwin (D) 		Alex
Mooney (R) 		Undecided
Harper Polling Archived November 30, 2016, at the Wayback Machine November 16–17, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 41% 31% 28%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Carte
Goodwin (D) 		Evan
Jenkins (R) 		Undecided
Harper Polling Archived November 30, 2016, at the Wayback Machine November 16–17, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 31% 43% 25%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Carte
Goodwin (D) 		Patrick
Morrisey (R) 		Undecided
Harper Polling Archived November 30, 2016, at the Wayback Machine November 16–17, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 39% 43% 18%

Results

United States Senate election in West Virginia, 2018
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Manchin (incumbent) 290,510 49.57% -12.00%
Republican Patrick Morrisey 271,113 46.26% +9.79%
Libertarian Rusty Hollen 24,411 4.17% N/A
Total votes 586,034 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Results by county

All results are from the office of the Secretary of State of West Virginia.

County Candidate Total
votes
Joe Manchin Patrick Morrisey Rusty Hollen
% Votes % Votes % Votes
Barbour 42.98% 2,121 51.91% 2,562 5.11% 252 4,935
Berkeley 42.63% 14,508 53.21% 18,111 4.16% 1,416 34,035
Boone 57.12% 3,894 39.75% 2,710 3.12% 213 6,817
Braxton 51.24% 2,148 45.01% 1,887 3.75% 157 4,192
Brooke 50.93% 3,987 44.88% 3,513 4.19% 328 7,828
Cabell 58.18% 16,909 38.77% 11,267 3.05% 885 29,061
Calhoun 45.34% 967 49.93% 1,065 4.74% 101 2,133
Clay 46.92% 1,141 49.22% 1,197 3.87% 94 2,432
Doddridge 33.77% 746 61.20% 1,352 5.02% 111 2,209
Fayette 53.19% 6,502 42.22% 5,160 4.59% 561 12,223
Gilmer 47.22% 944 46.47% 929 6.30% 126 1,999
Grant 24.04% 935 72.49% 2,820 3.47% 135 3,890
Greenbrier 50.78% 6,201 45.55% 5,563 3.67% 448 12,212
Hampshire 33.80% 2,325 62.71% 4,313 3.49% 240 6,878
Hancock 46.53% 4,707 49.06% 4,963 4.42% 447 10,117
Hardy 41.41% 1,880 54.34% 2,467 4.25% 193 4,540
Harrison 51.05% 11,491 42.25% 9,512 6.70% 1,508 22,511
Jackson 47.89% 4,890 48.61% 4,964 3.50% 357 10,211
Jefferson 51.32% 10,666 45.04% 9,360 3.64% 756 20,782
Kanawha 61.58% 39,333 35.27% 22,527 3.16% 2,018 63,878
Lewis 41.64% 2,326 51.54% 2,879 6.82% 381 5,586
Lincoln 51.40% 2,899 45.27% 2,553 3.33% 188 5,640
Logan 47.74% 4,574 49.13% 4,708 3.13% 300 9,582
Marion 56.23% 10,889 37.59% 7,280 6.18% 1,197 19,366
Marshall 50.84% 5,485 45.12% 4,868 4.04% 436 10,789
Mason 51.06% 4,270 45.50% 3,805 3.44% 288 8,363
McDowell 48.67% 2,222 48.15% 2,198 3.18% 145 4,565
Mercer 41.19% 7,430 55.62% 10,033 3.20% 577 18,040
Mineral 34.79% 3,108 61.84% 5,525 3.37% 301 8,934
Mingo 42.13% 2,929 55.02% 3,825 2.85% 198 6,952
Monongalia 58.20% 18,010 35.28% 10,918 6.52% 2,019 30,947
Monroe 43.09% 2,125 53.61% 2,644 3.30% 163 4,932
Morgan 34.54% 2,143 60.98% 3,783 4.48% 278 6,204
Nicholas 45.75% 3,588 50.34% 3,948 3.91% 307 7,843
Ohio 55.18% 8,731 41.64% 6,588 3.19% 504 15,823
Pendleton 37.65% 948 58.70% 1,478 3.65% 92 2,518
Pleasants 45.88% 1,157 50.20% 1,266 3.93% 99 2,522
Pocahontas 44.59% 1,269 49.58% 1,411 5.83% 166 2,846
Preston 35.56% 3,686 57.34% 5,943 7.10% 736 10,365
Putnam 49.31% 10,513 47.33% 10,090 3.36% 716 21,319
Raleigh 43.86% 10,581 52.31% 12,620 3.84% 926 24,127
Randolph 50.27% 4,472 45.16% 4,017 4.58% 407 8,896
Ritchie 33.85% 1,082 61.36% 1,961 4.79% 153 3,196
Roane 51.30% 2,165 45.00% 1,899 3.70% 156 4,220
Summers 50.62% 2,069 45.71% 1,868 3.67% 150 4,087
Taylor 44.91% 2,376 49.94% 2,642 5.14% 272 5,290
Tucker 46.90% 1,469 47.96% 1,502 5.14% 161 3,132
Tyler 38.00% 1,065 57.19% 1,603 4.82% 135 2,803
Upshur 41.17% 3,102 53.23% 4,010 5.60% 422 7,534
Wayne 50.34% 6,395 46.87% 5,954 2.79% 355 12,704
Webster 45.03% 1,033 48.82% 1,120 6.15% 141 2,294
Wetzel 50.91% 2,518 43.17% 2,135 5.92% 293 4,946
Wirt 42.22% 790 53.71% 1,005 4.06% 76 1,871
Wood 48.88% 14,189 47.19% 13,696 3.93% 1,141 29,026
Wyoming 44.27% 2,607 52.57% 3,096 3.16% 186 5,889
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican